Weekly FX Market Update – Dollar Enters Cyclical Transition Phase | May 4, 2025
This comprehensive weekly analysis provides strategic insights into the emerging cyclical turning point for the dollar and its gradual weakening trajectory. Featuring detailed technical forecasts for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and potential geopolitical catalysts including Putin's May 8th ceasefire announcement, this report identifies critical support/resistance levels and positioning opportunities. Professional traders will benefit from the time-horizon risk framework that outlines short, medium, and long-term strategies amid evolving market conditions, with special attention to the FOMC meeting implications and US-China trade
This week's analysis identifies a critical cyclical turning point for the dollar as markets transition toward the anticipated Fed easing cycle. While strong US employment data has pushed back June rate cut expectations, institutional positioning reveals preparations for a gradual dollar weakening phase. Three key catalysts warrant attention: Putin's 72-hour ceasefire announcement as potential groundwork for conflict resolution, China's Commerce Ministry signals regarding trade negotiation openness, and the JPY's transformation from interest rate to geopolitical risk currency. The FOMC meeting (May 7-8) represents the immediate inflection point, though the environment favors selective currency allocation rather than uniform dollar positioning.